Just like with most things in sports, fans take amateur drafts a lot more seriously than executives. Front offices are realistic with their picks. They have scouts everywhere in the world, are looking for very specific things and generally have pretty realistic expectations regarding their decisions. Fans, on the other hand, live and die with every pick. The right guy will guarantee 12 straight championships while the wrong guy will doom the team to a fate worse than hell itself: losing at a game.
Amateur drafts are funny, because in the end, everything is a crapshoot. For every LeBron James, there were multiple Kwame Browns and Michael Olowokandis. For every Peyton Manning, there were multiple JaMarcus Russels and Tim Couches.
The point is, nobody actually has any idea of what they're doing, which is why projecting this draft is so difficult.
Fate somehow determined that the 2013 NBA draft would feature basically no one all that exceptional, which makes sense because there were no exceptional teams in college basketball this year. The weak crop of players led to a record 12 international players being taken in the first round. Compare that to next year's draft, likely headlined by "future stars" Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker.
That said, someone could tell you today that Anthony Bennett will perfectly complement Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters, and that the Cavs are building such a strong dynasty that they won't even want LeBron back in 2014. Others could tell you that he'll barely crack five minutes per game on a crummy lottery team. While the reality is probably somewhere in the middle, both camps will fight tooth an nail to make sure you know what they think.
That's why the draft is so much fun. It only adds to a fan's compulsive desire to argue about anything. Some teams draft based on need, some get the star power, and some make you scratch your head and say, "yeesh, I hope they know what they're doing out there..." Either way, it gives us a chance to argue about things that cannot be proven. Don't believe me? See if these projections sounds realistic:
1) The best player in this year's draft will be new Washington small forward Otto Porter because playing with young teammates John Wall, Bradley Beal and Jan Vesely will allow for him to develop alongside them. His scoring and rebounding abilities will vault him into a perennial top-5 talent in this league.
2) The 76ers got the steal in the draft by trading for Nerlens Noel and selecting Michael Carter-Williams. MCW's height gives him the advantage over smaller opponents while Noel's shot-blocking and rebounding abilities will make him a force down low for years to come. In receiving a first round pick from what many expect to be a pretty bad New Orleans team in next year's drat, Philadelphia is well on its way to bringing glory back to the City of Brotherly Love.
Can you disagree with either of those? Of course you can! Can you back it up with evidence? Of course you can't! I didn't really use any facts in making my claims and you wouldn't in trying to refute them. Plenty of players rack up stats in college and then don't pan out in the pros, others have reasonable-yet unspectacular college careers and become all stars at the next level.
Personally, I think this draft will be remembered for adding some key role players to already good teams, a couple all-star cameos, and that's about it. It might not be historically memorable, but how many drafts ever really are?
Friday, June 28, 2013
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
LeBron's Headband, Mike Miller's Shoe, and Silly Miami Fans
Last night there was an excellent basketball game between the Spurs and the Heat. Tim Duncan had an incredible first half, then disappeared in the second. Lebron had a terrible (for him) first three quarters, then dominated in the fourth the way only he can. The Heat won in overtime, and pushed the series to a game seven.
My enduring images of the game though will be a headband-less LeBron, a shoe-less Mike Miller, and an overreaction on social media. After all, San Antonio led by three with 20ish seconds remaining, there was no possible way a team with the best shooter ever would be able to tie it up, right? Especially against a team that has had trouble on the offensive glass in every game this season? (Hate to say I told you so but...)
I can't have been the only one to notice that the story on Twitter was not about the game, but about the peripherals. James's headband. Miller's shoe. To be clear, this was not only friends, but also media personalities stressing these non-stories. Maybe this is just me, but I expect my sports to, well, still be about sports sometimes. The beauty of social media is that it allows fans, analysts and everyone in between, whether professional or amateur, to interact in real time. Twitter can give a viewer something new to look at, a new focus or a different perspective that can change or at least muddle a complex impression of an event. In this case though, it can also bring attention to the fact that LeBron looks really old (he is already 28 after all) without a headband, and that San Antonio had this game locked up to the point where people could head home for the night.
Maybe I'm asking for too much seriousness from a game. But I'd bet that there's a middle ground where amusing tidbits can be mentioned as side notes to credible commentary.
Following that rant, here's what I noticed about the Spurs:
1) Tim Duncan was overpowering in the first half when the Spurs made a concerted effort to get him the ball, then couldn't do much in the second half when the Heat realized that they should probably double team the surefire hall of famer who almost had a 30/10 in the first half.
2) The Spurs forgot that they won game five behind an absurdly fast paced offense that was entirely predicated on preventing the Heat's halfcourt defense from locking them down. In the fourth quarter and overtime, San Antonio used at least 20 seconds off the shot clock on over ten of their possessions, indicating a much slower pace. This allowed James to stick on Tony Parker like glue and forced bad shots late in the clock.
3) After only giving up 65 points through three quarters, the Spurs gave up a whopping 30 in the fourth quarter alone. Miami shot 64.7% from the floor that period, San Antonio shot 35%. For everyone saying how well tuned a machine the Spurs were on offense, they looked like they were on life support in the fourth quarter and just couldn't catch their breath.
Here's what I noticed about Miami:
1) If the Heat lose in game seven, a valiant effort by Chris Bosh throughout this entire series will have gone to waste. He's been a better rebounder this series than in the entire postseason leading up to this series, and made several key defensive stops down the stretch. When James and the supporting cast are making jumpers from the outside, Chris Bosh should be grabbing offensive boards and dishing out to shooters. It's what kept Miami in the game in the first place as he had the assist on the late Ray Allen 3-pointer that tied the game. Even if they win game seven, he's still not going to get any credit, but at least he'll get a ring out of it.
2) If it wasn't clear before, Miami has an on/off switch. If someone can give me a different explanation for the disparity between their play in the first three periods and the last two, then I'd gladly welcome it. If the Heat are playing defense the way they were for the fourth quarter (and not the first three) then no one is beating them.
3) Even with the great fourth quarter, Miami got really lucky that both Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard only made 1/2 free throws late. San Antonio lost because of those free throws. An extra points here or there, and Allen doesn't tie it, and LeBron doesn't bring them to within three in the first place.
4) Credit where credit is due. LeBron James has received a lot of scrutiny for his career based on his fourth quarter performances. Last night he submitted an exceptional performance, not all of which shows up on the box score. If he isn't guarding Tony Parker, the slash and kick game is still an option, Miami's defense gets discombobulated, and Danny Green is open for maybe just one more dagger.
My enduring images of the game though will be a headband-less LeBron, a shoe-less Mike Miller, and an overreaction on social media. After all, San Antonio led by three with 20ish seconds remaining, there was no possible way a team with the best shooter ever would be able to tie it up, right? Especially against a team that has had trouble on the offensive glass in every game this season? (Hate to say I told you so but...)
I can't have been the only one to notice that the story on Twitter was not about the game, but about the peripherals. James's headband. Miller's shoe. To be clear, this was not only friends, but also media personalities stressing these non-stories. Maybe this is just me, but I expect my sports to, well, still be about sports sometimes. The beauty of social media is that it allows fans, analysts and everyone in between, whether professional or amateur, to interact in real time. Twitter can give a viewer something new to look at, a new focus or a different perspective that can change or at least muddle a complex impression of an event. In this case though, it can also bring attention to the fact that LeBron looks really old (he is already 28 after all) without a headband, and that San Antonio had this game locked up to the point where people could head home for the night.
Maybe I'm asking for too much seriousness from a game. But I'd bet that there's a middle ground where amusing tidbits can be mentioned as side notes to credible commentary.
Following that rant, here's what I noticed about the Spurs:
1) Tim Duncan was overpowering in the first half when the Spurs made a concerted effort to get him the ball, then couldn't do much in the second half when the Heat realized that they should probably double team the surefire hall of famer who almost had a 30/10 in the first half.
2) The Spurs forgot that they won game five behind an absurdly fast paced offense that was entirely predicated on preventing the Heat's halfcourt defense from locking them down. In the fourth quarter and overtime, San Antonio used at least 20 seconds off the shot clock on over ten of their possessions, indicating a much slower pace. This allowed James to stick on Tony Parker like glue and forced bad shots late in the clock.
3) After only giving up 65 points through three quarters, the Spurs gave up a whopping 30 in the fourth quarter alone. Miami shot 64.7% from the floor that period, San Antonio shot 35%. For everyone saying how well tuned a machine the Spurs were on offense, they looked like they were on life support in the fourth quarter and just couldn't catch their breath.
Here's what I noticed about Miami:
1) If the Heat lose in game seven, a valiant effort by Chris Bosh throughout this entire series will have gone to waste. He's been a better rebounder this series than in the entire postseason leading up to this series, and made several key defensive stops down the stretch. When James and the supporting cast are making jumpers from the outside, Chris Bosh should be grabbing offensive boards and dishing out to shooters. It's what kept Miami in the game in the first place as he had the assist on the late Ray Allen 3-pointer that tied the game. Even if they win game seven, he's still not going to get any credit, but at least he'll get a ring out of it.
2) If it wasn't clear before, Miami has an on/off switch. If someone can give me a different explanation for the disparity between their play in the first three periods and the last two, then I'd gladly welcome it. If the Heat are playing defense the way they were for the fourth quarter (and not the first three) then no one is beating them.
3) Even with the great fourth quarter, Miami got really lucky that both Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard only made 1/2 free throws late. San Antonio lost because of those free throws. An extra points here or there, and Allen doesn't tie it, and LeBron doesn't bring them to within three in the first place.
4) Credit where credit is due. LeBron James has received a lot of scrutiny for his career based on his fourth quarter performances. Last night he submitted an exceptional performance, not all of which shows up on the box score. If he isn't guarding Tony Parker, the slash and kick game is still an option, Miami's defense gets discombobulated, and Danny Green is open for maybe just one more dagger.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Those Damn Yankees/Heat/Lakers/Patriots/you get the idea...
Sports aren't fun unless someone is either winning or losing. It's why I don't like soccer, and why I can almost tolerate the shootout rule in hockey. I especially like it when specific teams are on the losing end, and am equally infuriated when those same teams win. Most of those teams are division rivals (Packers, Red Wings, Cardinals, etc.), but there are a couple of exceptions. I don't like the Canucks because, quite frankly, no one likes the Canucks.1 I don't like the Atlanta Hawks because they employ Josh Smith and used to employ Joe Johnson, two of my least favorite basketball players. Other than that? I'm a pretty peaceful fan. You like your teams and I'll like my teams and as long as we can agree that the Canucks are jerks, we'll get along.
The point is, nowhere in the above paragraph did I mention anything about the Yankees. Nor did I mention the Heat, the Lakers, the Angels, the Dodgers, (both trying to be Yankees-west and currently failing) or any other team that has been accused of buying players and championships. I used to hate the Yankees, but only because my family hates the Yankees. But I'm a Cubs fan. The Cubs are in the National League, the Yankees are in the American league. They might play each other in one series during the entire season.
"But Benjamin, the Yankees always spend so much money and are currently paying A-Rod to not play more than the Astros entire organization combined! Clearly that makes them evil!"
This is a popular sentiment. When you dig a little more deeply though, you realize that payroll doesn't tell the entire story. The Astros are really, really bad, decreasing their motivation to pay anyone any amount of money. The Yankees, on the other hand, needed A-Rod to win their only championship of the last 12 years in 2009. The baseball Giants, on the other hand, have won two World Series in three years, ranking 8th and 10th in payroll. Everyone in baseball has money, it's just a matter of spending money on the right people. The Yankees signed Sabathia, Texiera and Rodriguez. The Cubs signed Alphonso Soriano. Which of those are going to help you win a championship?
The Heat are a different story. I don't think people hate The Heat. I think they hate LeBron for doing what so many people would've done in his place. Only the Spurs have been able to stay consistently good at adding pieces with late-round draft picks. The best way to get to be good in the NBA is by being really, really bad and hoping for a transcendent draft pick opportunity. Just ask the Bulls and Derrick Rose. Or the Cavs with LeBron or now with Kyrie Irving. Look at the 2009-10 Cavs roster though and tell me they would ever win a championship.2 LeBron looked at that crap-sandwich, looked at teaming up with one top-5 talent and another top-10 talent in a beautiful area with not a lot of taxes. LeBron bolted Cleveland because they couldn't get him any better help that Antawn Jamison. I could never blame a guy for that.
Unless you root for a division rival or have considerable playoff history with one of these teams, I don't understand the hatred. It's not-so-thinly veiled jealousy. The Cubs haven't won since 1908, the Yankees have 27 rings. You're darned right I'm jealous. I don't care if they get another one though. Kudos to them for doing what the Cubs can't. Good job by the Heat/Wade in getting LeBron (and Bosh) to come to them. The Bulls tried, and failed.3 Hating the way either of these teams goes about their business is naive and petty. Don't hate the Yankees. Don't hate LeBron. Don't hate the Heat. Hate the fact that your team isn't smart enough to work a greedy, money-grubbing system as well as they have.
1.Not even Vancouver likes the Canucks. Try to name me another team in any league that everyone, even its own fans, hates. I'll make it easier for you. You can't.
↩
2. After LeBron, their top-4 in total minutes played were Mo Williams, Anthony Parker, Anderson Varejao and JJ Hickson. They won 61 games.
↩
3. I don't think you would've seen the same animosity had LeBron signed in Chicago and teamed up with Rose. The Bulls wanted both James and Bosh, but couldn't get either.↩
The point is, nowhere in the above paragraph did I mention anything about the Yankees. Nor did I mention the Heat, the Lakers, the Angels, the Dodgers, (both trying to be Yankees-west and currently failing) or any other team that has been accused of buying players and championships. I used to hate the Yankees, but only because my family hates the Yankees. But I'm a Cubs fan. The Cubs are in the National League, the Yankees are in the American league. They might play each other in one series during the entire season.
"But Benjamin, the Yankees always spend so much money and are currently paying A-Rod to not play more than the Astros entire organization combined! Clearly that makes them evil!"
This is a popular sentiment. When you dig a little more deeply though, you realize that payroll doesn't tell the entire story. The Astros are really, really bad, decreasing their motivation to pay anyone any amount of money. The Yankees, on the other hand, needed A-Rod to win their only championship of the last 12 years in 2009. The baseball Giants, on the other hand, have won two World Series in three years, ranking 8th and 10th in payroll. Everyone in baseball has money, it's just a matter of spending money on the right people. The Yankees signed Sabathia, Texiera and Rodriguez. The Cubs signed Alphonso Soriano. Which of those are going to help you win a championship?
The Heat are a different story. I don't think people hate The Heat. I think they hate LeBron for doing what so many people would've done in his place. Only the Spurs have been able to stay consistently good at adding pieces with late-round draft picks. The best way to get to be good in the NBA is by being really, really bad and hoping for a transcendent draft pick opportunity. Just ask the Bulls and Derrick Rose. Or the Cavs with LeBron or now with Kyrie Irving. Look at the 2009-10 Cavs roster though and tell me they would ever win a championship.2 LeBron looked at that crap-sandwich, looked at teaming up with one top-5 talent and another top-10 talent in a beautiful area with not a lot of taxes. LeBron bolted Cleveland because they couldn't get him any better help that Antawn Jamison. I could never blame a guy for that.
Unless you root for a division rival or have considerable playoff history with one of these teams, I don't understand the hatred. It's not-so-thinly veiled jealousy. The Cubs haven't won since 1908, the Yankees have 27 rings. You're darned right I'm jealous. I don't care if they get another one though. Kudos to them for doing what the Cubs can't. Good job by the Heat/Wade in getting LeBron (and Bosh) to come to them. The Bulls tried, and failed.3 Hating the way either of these teams goes about their business is naive and petty. Don't hate the Yankees. Don't hate LeBron. Don't hate the Heat. Hate the fact that your team isn't smart enough to work a greedy, money-grubbing system as well as they have.
1.Not even Vancouver likes the Canucks. Try to name me another team in any league that everyone, even its own fans, hates. I'll make it easier for you. You can't.
↩
2. After LeBron, their top-4 in total minutes played were Mo Williams, Anthony Parker, Anderson Varejao and JJ Hickson. They won 61 games.
↩
3. I don't think you would've seen the same animosity had LeBron signed in Chicago and teamed up with Rose. The Bulls wanted both James and Bosh, but couldn't get either.↩
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